By Associated Press’s David Klepper
Washington (AP) In an attempt to curb the soaring crime rates in Washington, D.C., President Donald Trump announced Monday that his administration will take over the city’s policing.
However, Trump omitted a lot of background and overstated or misrepresented numerous facts about public safety in Washington, where the crime rate has decreased recently.
Let’s examine the facts in more detail:
TRUMP: It’s not getting better, it’s becoming worse. It’s becoming worse.
THE FACTS: According to data released by the Metropolitan Police of Washington, violent crime has decreased in the city since a peak in 2023 during the pandemic, which runs counter to the president’s claims.
When compared to this time in 2024, the data shows a decrease in killings, robberies, and burglaries this year. When compared to this time last year, violent crime has decreased by 26% overall.
According to a recent Department of Justice study, violent crime has decreased by 35% since 2023, resuming the previous downward trend that has seen the district’s violent crime rate fall to its lowest level in 30 years.
According to the study, killings have decreased by 32%, armed carjackings by 53%, and attacks with a hazardous weapon by 27% when compared to 2023 figures.
However, after authorities launched an investigation into claims that officials falsified part of the data to improve its appearance, the city’s statistics are again under scrutiny. Mayor Muriel Bowser, however, defended the statistics and claimed that Trump’s portrayal of lawlessness was untrue.
“Crime is not on the rise,” Bowser stated on MSNBC Sunday. Actually, we’re seeing a decline in crime.
TRUMP: 2023 saw the biggest number of murders, most likely ever. They say 25 years, but since it only goes back 25 years, they have no idea what it means.
THE FACTS: In 2023, there were 274 homicides in the District of Columbia, the most in 20 years in a metropolis of roughly 700,000. However, homicide rates are far higher in the city’s own crime data from the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, when the population was smaller.
For example, the city recorded 498 homicides in 1990. There were 509 the following year and 460 in 1992.
The city’s crime statistics span decades and can be found online.
TRUMP: Compared to Bogota, Colombia, and Mexico City, Washington has a greater murder rate today. Some of the locations that you hear about are far worse than others on Earth. This is significantly higher.
THE FACTS: Trump isn’t giving the complete story, but it’s true. Compared to many other cities across the world, even areas that many Americans have historically viewed as unsafe, Washington does have a higher homicide rate. However, Trump is omitting crucial background information: violent crime rates are higher in the US overall than in many other nations.
Other cities have higher crime statistics, but Washington is one of the most hazardous large cities in America.
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TRUMP: The city’s local leadership’s egregious shortcomings are the root cause of this grave public safety emergency. The City Council’s radical left voted against cash bail. By the way, it’s a catastrophe everywhere in the nation where there is no cash bail.
THE FACTS The effect of cashless bail on crime rates has not been established by data. The findings of studies, many of which concentrate on defendant recidivism rather than crime rates, have been conflicting.
According to a Brennan Center for Justice research from 2024, there is no statistically significant correlation between crime rates and bail reform. The charity examined crime statistics for 33 U.S. cities from 2015 to 2021, 22 of which had implemented bail reform of some kind. To ascertain if crime rates had changed between those with and without reforms, researchers employed a statistical approach.
This finding applies to both general and violent crime trends, according to Ames Grawert, co-author of the report and senior counsel in the Brennan Center’s Justice Program.
Similarly, there is no proof that cash bail increases the likelihood that offenders will appear in court or deters crime among those freed pending trial, according to a 2023 study published in the American Economic Journal.
In a July 25 fact check, Kellen Funk, a professor at Columbia Law School who specializes in pretrial procedure and bail bonding, told The Associated Press, “I am not aware of any reliable studies that support the President’s claim and would love to know what the Administration offers in support.” I would classify the allegation as demonstrably untrue and provocative based on my professional judgment.
The Trump administration has referenced a 2022 report from the Yolo County, California, district attorney’s office that examined the effects on recidivism of a temporary cashless bail system that was put in place throughout the state to stop COVID-19 outbreaks in jails and courts. It was discovered that 70.6% of the 595 people who were released under this procedure between April 2020 and May 2021 were arrested once more following their release.
Funk, who was reached on Monday, pointed out that in the 1990s, Washington, D.C., changed its cash bail system.
The President said that the D.C. bail system has been a model for bipartisan bail reform initiatives in New Jersey and New Mexico over the past ten years, and that it has performed significantly better than cash-based bail systems for almost thirty years, including during the recent historic lows in reported crime in the District.
Reporting came from Melissa Goldin, a writer for the Associated Press in New York.
