There are still concerns regarding the safety of the detainees and workers at Alligator Alcatraz, the temporary tent city built to keep migrants in the middle of the Everglades, as Florida approaches storm season.
In particular, anyone residing in a tent in the Everglades could face fatal circumstances due to flooding, a storm coming from the Gulf, and quick storm intensification.
The majority of the information in a 33-page paper that the state provided on Wednesday that described the strategy for a full-scale evacuation of the site was blacked out due to heavy redaction.
Activation Procedures, a section that might have described how and when the state would decide to evacuate the facility, was completely blacked.
At a recent news conference, Kevin Guthrie, head of Florida’s Division of Emergency Management, made it clear that the temporary buildings used to house detainees are capable of withstanding a Category 2 storm with sustained winds of between 96 and 110 miles per hour. “I can assure you that the hurricane experts have everything covered,” Guthrie added.
Hurricane classifications do not account for tornadoes, storm surge, quick intensification, or storm travel speed; they only rate wind speed.
Hurricanes can hit Alligator Alcatraz, which is located inside Big Cypress National Preserve, from almost any angle.
A tropical storm might become a Category 3 hurricane in a single day due to the recent increase in storm intensity.
Therefore, considerations other than storm classification would have to be incorporated into any evacuation decision.
In order to learn more about the duration of an evacuation, the quantity of buses required to transport inmates, and the origin of those vehicles, the South Florida Sun Sentinel reached out to Florida’s Division of Emergency Management. It also questioned how the state’s evacuation strategy took storm surge, floods, and rapid intensification into account.
As of now, there has been no response from the emergency management section.
Here are some of the factors that make Alligator Alcatraz especially vulnerable.
In recent decades, hurricanes have become more intense, making it more challenging for emergency personnel to determine risk and plan evacuations. Any storm that increases its maximum sustained wind speed by 35 mph or more in a 24-hour period is considered to be rapidly intensifying, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Within 24 hours of reaching shore, Hurricane Helene in 2024 accelerated from Category 1 to Category 4, reaching sustained winds of 140 mph.
Additionally, Hurricane Lee in 2023, thankfully far out to sea, went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 in a single day. In less than twenty-four hours that same year, Hurricane Idalia went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane.
Hurricanes are intensifying more quickly now than they did in the past, according to a 2023 study. Between 1980 and 2020, the number of hurricanes that intensified quickly in coastal areas (within 250 miles of the coast) increased worldwide.
According to the study, the trend was caused by rising sea surface temperatures brought on by climate change. Hurricanes are fueled by the warmer water temperatures. Rapid intensification requires sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees.
What does Alligator Alcatraz have to gain from that? In a day, a tropical storm that appears safe and moves at a reasonably rapid 25 mph could traverse 600 miles and intensify into a fatal Category 4 storm.
This begs the question: even if an oncoming system is only a tropical storm, how many days out does the state need to issue an evacuation order?
Fortunately, depending on the environment a cyclone is entering, experts can forecast the probability of quick intensification. According to National Weather Service meteorologist George Rizzuto, the primary causes include wind shear, sea surface temperature, the ability of a storm to organize and stack vertically, and the atmospheric moisture profile.
The storm would be weakened by wind shear and dry air, but it would be strengthened by hot water and calm, humid air.
Another effect is a storm’s width. Compact storms can spin up more quickly, resembling a spinning figure skater who pulls their arms in to rotate faster, whereas wide, sprawling storms take longer to intensify.
Rapid intensification is also influenced by a storm’s posture, whether it is inclined or upright. The likelihood of an upright storm getting stronger is higher.
Sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic at the end of July are warmer than typical compared to the average since 1985, but not as abnormally hot as those in 2023 and 2024 for this time of year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Depending on the direction of the hurricane, Alligator Alcatraz is 25 to 50 miles inland, but that doesn’t mean it’s safe.
Hurricane Helene in 2024 continued to be a hurricane 200 miles from the coast in central Georgia.
Additionally, hurricane-force wind gusts reached the mountains of western North Carolina, 350 miles inland, according to NOAA.
About 20 miles south of Alligator Alcatraz, Hurricane Andrew of 1992 sliced across the Everglades, yet local wind speeds were still as high as Category 5, or 160 mph.
For two days, the storm isolated the Miccosukee tribe from the outside world.
“The highways were one of our biggest issues,” Tribal Police Chief Tony Zecca told the Sun Sentinel in 1992. Trees had fallen and obscured everything. I was terrified that we wouldn’t be able to call for aid in the event of a medical emergency.
According to the Sun Sentinel at the time, they lacked radios, power, and telephones. Outside agencies could not be reached, not even by the tribal police.
Guthrie and Gov. Ron DeSantis have stressed that water kills more people than wind during and after storms in earlier press conferences alerting people to leave before hurricanes struck. Both rain and storm surge have the potential to flood Alligator Alcatraz.
Furthermore, storms can approach from nearly any angle.
The area was severely damaged by Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Hurricane Wilma in 2005, which blew in from the Gulf and caused wind gusts of 93 mph near Alligator Alcatraz, and Ernesto in 2006, which came in from the south on a trajectory that passed almost straight over the site.
Growing up close to the Alligator Alcatraz facility, Curtis Osceola, senior executive policy adviser for the Miccosukee Tribe, has voiced his opposition to the incarceration location.
According to Osceola, Big Cypress is a rain-driven system, meaning that when it rains a lot, the water builds up before moving south. Floodwaters from the Everglades’ southern flow would be directed onto Alligator Alcatraz, where the Tamiami Trail serves as a dam to store water.
Osceola remembers how Hurricane Irma in 2017 slammed over Big Cypress from the south, dumping up to 20 inches of rain. According to Osceola, the runway—where the detainee tents are located—is sort of washed away by the water.
The FAA claims that Alligator Alcatraz’s elevated runways are 12.7 feet above sea level, which is marginally higher than the surrounding swamp, which the US Geological Survey estimates is between 7 and 9 feet above sea level.
Storm surge, which happens when hurricane winds force water up into coastal communities, is the other water hazard.
In Florida, storm surge killed about three times as many people as wind during Hurricane Helene. A hurricane might accumulate more water along the coast if it is shallower. Because of this, the Gulf shore is more vulnerable than the Atlantic coast, which is deeper.
A hurricane approaching from the Gulf might present a storm-surge concern for the plant, according to Rizzuto of the National Weather Service.
According to Rizzuto, there would be a significant westerly component to the wind throughout Collier County if a storm was approaching from the west side, close to Flamingo. Thus, all of that fresh and ocean water would be pushing inward.
The possibility of an easterly storm pushing Everglades sheet flow westward toward Alligator Alcatraz is also less likely. That was theoretically feasible, according to Rizzuto, but he was more worried about storm surge from a hurricane that was coming from the Gulf side.
Strong tornadoes might threaten Alligator Alcatraz, even if a hurricane makes landfall 140 miles away.
Hurricane Milton swept over the state last year after blowing in from the Gulf south of Tampa.
Ninety to 140 miles from the eye, the outer bands of the storms spawned 19 tornadoes, many of which were in South Florida.
The Alligator Alcatraz tents are made to resist Category 2 winds of 110 mph, but several of those twisters produced wind speeds much higher than that. One of them killed six people close to St. Lucie and reached peak winds of 155 mph.
It’s no easy operation to evacuate 1,000 or more detainees and workers from the far-off Everglades.
Osceola, a former public lawyer who has seen inmate transport procedures in action, is worried about the difficulties.
According to him, detainees will require shackling, protection for the bus windows, guards for every bus ride, and a location where they may be temporarily housed while the storm passes.
Five possible backup locations are listed in the emergency plan in case of an evacuation. Most likely for security concerns, such websites are blocked.
Guthrie asserted that Florida is adept at handling emergencies. Our areas of expertise include response and recovery, quick thinking, and—above all—logistics management. The same level of discipline, speed, and accuracy has been used here at Alligator Alcatraz.
Numerous prisons have previously been evacuated by the state.
Prior to Hurricane Idalia in 2023, the Department of Corrections evacuated 4,000 inmates from 35 facilities throughout the state. Milton also led to the evacuation of 5,460 prisoners from 28 different prisons.
During the press conference, Guthrie stated, “I need to make sure we have room for 1,000 (at other sites) when we have 1,000 (Alligator Alcatraz detainees).” I have to make sure we have space for 2,000 when we reach that number.
Guthrie stated that it is the responsibility of the Florida Division of Emergency Management and our law enforcement partners to be able to carry out evacuations in the event of a catastrophic hurricane (Category 3 or higher). Therefore, we are always considering what we can achieve and where we will go once we reach a particular (hurricane) level.
According to Guthrie, the Alligator Alcatraz facility can potentially house 4,000 inmates, while it presently houses roughly 1,000. We keep coming up with backup strategies as our capacity grows to make sure we’re prepared for hurricane season, Guthrie stated.
The hurricane season lasts until November 30.
Tropical weather, the outdoors, and the environment are all covered by Bill Kearney. It is possible to contact him at [email protected]. You may follow him on X@billkearney6 or Instagram @billkearney.
